Should the Twins Trade Santana??

In a word, abso-freakin-lutely!!!

Here are the Facts: Johan Santana, the undisputed best pitcher in MLB right now, is a free agent after the 2008 season. Based on contracts given out to pitchers like Barry Zito and Carlos Zambrano, who are not in the same class as Santana, Santana is expected to be offered a contract in the range of 5-6 years and $140-160 million next offseason. The Twins, who have the richest owner in baseball but who refuses to spend any money on his team, cannot afford to pay Santana the contract that he expects to receive. Santana, 32, has a no-trade clause, but has agreed to waive it if he is traded to the Yankees or Red Sox. If the Twins do not re-sign Santana, the team who signs him will be forced to give up their two top draft picks in the 2009 draft to the Twins in compensation for signing the Class A free agent pitcher.

Here's the Law: In baseball, there is no prize for finishing third.

Here's the Analysis: Publicly, there are currently three offers on the table for Santana. The Yankees have offered Philip Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and a third prospect. The Red Sox have offered a package of Jed Lowrie, Justin Masterson, and either Jacoby Ellsbury or Jon Lester and Coco Crisp. The Mets have offered a larger combination of prospects: OF Carlos Gomez, RHP Kevin Mulvey, RHP Philip Humber and RHP Deolis Guerra, the team's top pitching prospect from Class-A St. Lucie. As of today, the Twins have yet the accept any offer and are holding out for the best package for their ace pitcher.

Here's the Conclusion: The Twins are in a bind, but they would be smartest to trade Santana now while his value is the highest. During the season, Santana is at risk for injury or for not pitching well (See Randy Johnson in his last season with Seattle) because of this contract distraction. Either of these factors could lower his trade value. Further, if the Yankees or Red Sox both play well this year, they could decide to yank their offer for Santana because they would not need him. Finally, the Twins are in the same division as the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Indians, who are both poised to be better this season than the Twins (even with Santana). If the Twins cannot make the playoffs with Santana, there is no reason to hold onto him to stay competitive. They did so last year with CF Torii Hunter, and he left as a free agent. The Twins should sell hard while the market on Santana is high and restock their team, or else they risk being left with a team that loses their ace and continues to fade into obscurity.