Thursday, August 30, 2007

Question: Why is it that all great college players suck in the NBA?


That is not always true, but many scouts in the NBA and NFL are swayed by individual performances/statistics about players away from the field. For example, when the Philadelphia 76ers selected Shawn Bradley with the 2nd overall pick in the 1993 NBA draft, they did so because he was 7' 6''. At that time, he was the tallest player in NBA history. Certainly, he should be able to be a quality player because he is so tall. The scouts did not bother to look at Bradley's overall numbers in college at BYU. They focused on potential and flash and not performance and substance. Thus, as a result, quality college players like Penny Hardaway and Jamal Mashburn were selected afterwards.

The same result occurred ten years later in 2003, when the Pistons selected Darko Milicic as the 2nd overall pick ahead of the likes of Carmelo Anthony and Dwayne Wade. The Pistons saw a young 7' 0'' Center/Forward who could shoot from Serbia and salivated. They did not care that Anthony has just led Syracuse to the NCAA championship or that Wade led a talentless Marquette team to the Final Four.

However, regardless of how some players play in college, they are still not able to adjust to the NBA. Generally, white American players no longer perform well in the NBA. (See Christian Laettner, Keith Van Horn, Mike Dunleavy, Adam Morrisson). Of course, there are exceptions to every rule (Kirk Heinrich). Generally, these players are finesse players that have difficulty playing tough. They are great scorers, but they lack defensive and rebounding skills.

But, rest assured, there is no exact science. Plently of amazing players were either never drafted or drafted much later than they should have been because of their lack of imposing physical attributes on paper. (See Ben Wallace, David Lee, Tayshawn Prince, Carlos Boozer, Gilbert Arenas, Tony Parker). All of these players were selected after the first 20 picks in their respective drafts, and all are playing all-star caliber ball.

Occassionally, a team will draft on potential and get lucky (See Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, etc.), but those picks are few and far between. For every Kobe Bryant (#13 in 1996), there is a Kwame Brown (#1 in 2001). Picks like Bryant and Garnett merely perpetuate the myth that drafting potential is better than performance.

Lesson: Draft on performance to minimize risk. Spend your money more wisely on established FA who have already proven their ability on the pro level.

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

No Heart. Just Bling

According to St. Louis Cardinals Manager Tony LaRussa in Buzz Bissinger's Three Nights in August, the chief problem with professional athletes today is one of motivation. Few players play for the love of the game or practice the fundamentals. Nor, could they be really expected to. Due to the rise of big bucks contracts, professional athletes play the sport as a job. For the young players, it's about the Bling. It's about showing off fancy watches and fancy cars, and being able to play yourself in a video game. Oh, and the jewelry...It's being able to make Mr. T look like he's a lightweight...

Mr. T could well be the first athlete to have bling, but even Mr. T in Rocky III had some heart. As Clubber Lang, he was up at dawn and training in the basement so he could have his shot at the champ. Today, even if some youngsters train in the basement, that ends when he gets his first million dollar contract at age 18. No need to practice. The bling has arrived.

Some other athletes don't seem to care that much about the bling. Not that they are more modest, mind you. They just want financial stability. They are businessmen. Sports is merely a profession that is means for their family to achieve financial ends. Play time is over. They care about portfolios, investments, and stock tips. I'm talking Roger Dorn before Jake Taylor chews him out in
Major League.

And, as Tony LaRussa explained, there is no greater example of this problem than J.D. Drew. The man is as gifted a baseball player as LaRussa had ever seen. Yet, Drew always fell below expectations--unless, of course, it was his contract year. In Drew's 9 year career, he's only played more than 140 games twice. Once in 2004 for the Braves, and once in 2006 for the Dodgers. In those years, he averaged 26 homeruns and 97 RBI. In the 7 other years, he averaged 16 homeruns and and 50 RBI's. Coincidence? I think not.

Any surprise that after Drew signed a 5 year $70 million contract with the Red Sox in 2007, he has tanked miserably?? The contract is guaranteed, but his performance is not. The Red Sox should have stopped focusing on Drew's Moneyball qualities, and learned that the man has no heart. He carries his contact in his back pocket and can read it on demand. Drew is set for life. Why bother to pick up a bat?